Risk Analysis

Overview

Risk analysis develops an understanding of how a scenario could occur and what it could affect. Methods may be qualitative, quantitative, or mixed, using historical data, models, expert judgment, testing, threat intelligence, and operational evidence.

Results depend on scope, definitions, assumptions, time horizon, control performance, and data quality. A single score can hide low-probability severe outcomes, correlated failures, distribution tails, or important differences among financial, legal, safety, privacy, and customer impacts.

Analysts should document methods, ranges, evidence, sensitivity, limitations, and confidence. Scenarios should be compared consistently and updated as threats, assets, dependencies, and controls change, while decision-makers receive both estimates and material uncertainty. Independent challenge is valuable when assumptions materially influence a high-impact decision.

Risk Analysis is a measurable uncertainty or exposure that examines identified risk scenarios to estimate their likelihood, consequences, uncertainty, dependencies, and significance for decisions within a defined decision context. Risk analysis supports choices by explaining scenarios and uncertainty, not by presenting a precise score without assumptions, ranges, and evidence.

For Risk Analysis, the assessment should evaluate a measurable uncertainty or exposure that examines identified risk scenarios to estimate their likelihood, consequences, uncertainty, dependencies, and significance for decisions within a defined decision context. The assessment record should separate observed evidence supporting a measurable uncertainty or exposure that examines identified risk scenarios to estimate their likelihood, consequences, uncertainty, dependencies, and significance for decisions within a defined decision context from assumptions, state the time horizon and existing controls, and identify who owns any remaining exposure. Monitoring should test whether the conditions described in a measurable uncertainty or exposure that examines identified risk scenarios to estimate their likelihood, consequences, uncertainty, dependencies, and significance for decisions within a defined decision context have changed enough to require a new rating, treatment, or approval.